SGX Insider & Substantial Shareholder Activity from 25 - 29 Dec 06

Here are some of the more significant transactions reported over the past week extracted from the attached file:
CAPITARETAIL CHINA TRUST 18-Dec-06 The Capital Group Companies Inc. Open market purchase and sales 2280000
CHINA ENERSAVE LTD 29-Dec-06 Energy Capital Partners Limited Open Market Purchase 7379000
CHINA ENERSAVE LTD 28-Dec-06 Energy Capital Partners Limited Open Market Purchase 3000000
CHINA ENERSAVE LTD 27-Dec-06 Energy Capital Partners Limited Open Market Purchase 4000000
CHINA ENERSAVE LTD 27-Dec-06 Energy Capital Partners Limited Open Market Purchase 2500000
CHINACAST COMM HLDGS LTD 26-Dec-06 Great Wall Acquisition Corporation (GWAC) Open Market Purchase 8464286
CHINACAST COMM HLDGS LTD 21-Dec-06 Venture International Investment Holdings Limited Open Market Sale -33037221
CHINACAST COMM HLDGS LTD 21-Dec-06 Turnaround Limited Open Market Sale -67326820
CHIP ENG SENG CORPORATION LTD 28-Dec-06 Kwek Lee Keow / Teo Yeonh Investment Pte Ltd Open Market Purchase 1000000
FIRST ENGINEERING LTD 20-Dec-06 UBS AG Open Market Sale -1975000
HONGGUO INTL HOLDINGS LIMITED 21-Dec-06 FMR Corp. Purchase of Shares 1225000
K1 VENTURES LIMITED 27-Dec-06 Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited (Temasek) Open Market Purchase 7300000
K1 VENTURES LIMITED 27-Dec-06 Kephinance Investment Pte Ltd Open Market Purchase 3059000
MACQUARIE MEAG PRIME REIT 26-Dec-06 Morgan Stanley Investment Management Company Open Market Purchase 9223000
NORELCO UMS HOLDINGS LIMITED 26-Dec-06 ARISAIG ASEAN FUND LIMITED Open Market Purchase 200000
YELLOW PAGES(SINGAPORE)LIMITED 28-Dec-06 Global Advisory Group Pte Ltd Open Market Purchase 2468000

Those who have been following the markets are probably aware that they've been making new highs over the past weeks. Just how long the bullishness will continue is anybodys guess. Eyes are still very much focused on the US Federal Open Market Committee's decision on the US Interest rates. But the topic among Fed members of late was the housing slump in the US and how it's going to affect the US economy.

The chart below is the US Consumer Sentiment and Margin Debt vs the change of the Nasdaq Composite. Although the Nasdaq has a much wider zone for historical reversals, both the Consumer Sentiment and Margin Debt are at historically high levels, which is the reason for my lack of bullishness.

The Purchasing Managers' Index climbed back above the 50% mark in Dec after falling to 49.5 in Nov, indicating that the US Manufacturing sector expanded in Dec.... good news for the bulls.

Since I'm currently in Singapore, I took some time to attempt some quantitative work on the S'pore market. There's a serious lack of (free) data on the S'pore market and I'd think only Bloomberg would have them. The only free data I could obtain were from the SGX. The chart below shows the (smoothed) monthly change in Open Interest of the MSCI Singapore futures contract plotted together with the Stratis Times Index. The only obvious thing about the chart is that peak in open interest coincided with two intermediate peaks on the STI and the O.I. peaked a month later on two other occassions.

The other thing that I'm trying to put together is to observe how changes in Forecasted Earnings and Target Price affects stock prices of individual companies...

Have a good week!