MY TAKE ON INVESTING

Like everyone else, there is only one reason why I study, analyse and participate in the financial markets - and that is to make money. But the difference with me and most other people is that I am willing to use anything (legally) possible to do it. If counting the number of cockroaches that I see everyday gives me an edge in the market, I'll do it. If it works, I'll use it; be it keeping tabs on the economy, looking at charts and indicators (technical analysis), looking at value or growth potential (fundamental analysis), profits & earnings + other related market activity (quantitive analysis), through insider activity + consumer surveys (sentiment analysis) and yes even astrology.

I've spent over five years monitoring, studying, observing and trading the financial markets. My quest was to find out what makes the financial markets move, to find something substantial, something that will provide consistent monetary gains. I don't want to just accept what other authors say/write as gospel truth, I want to know why. In 2005, I took a masters degree in finance to see if what they teach in the university adds any value towards investing success - the answer is 'not really'. Investment knowledge builds up with time - what might seem unimportant to you now may become what you need to get you to the next 'level'. Such is my experience with fundamental, quantitative, economic and sentiment analysis.

What you see in this blog represents quite a number of item(s) and technique(s) that have met - like what W.D. Gann says - my '(utmost) satisfaction' and I hope that they can be of use to the investment pilgrim who's also on a quest for understanding and success.
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Monday, January 22, 2007

SGX Insider & Substantial Shareholder Activity from 15 - 19 Jan 07

Here are some of the more significant Insider and Substantial Shareholder transactions reported on the SGX (extracted
from the emailed file) over the past week :


ADVANCED HOLDINGS LTD. /Subst Shrhdr /17-Jan-07 /FMR Corp. /Open market sale /-2000000

ADVANCED HOLDINGS LTD. /Subst Shrhdr /15-Jan-07 /FMR Corp. /Open market sale /-1633000

ARIANECORP LIMITED /Subst Shrhdr /18-Jan-07 /D.B. Zwirn Special Opportunities Fund L.P. /Open Market Purchase /19000000

ASIA DEKOR HOLDINGS LIMITED /Subst Shrhdr /15-Jan-07 /Value Partners Limited /Open market sale /-9338000

A-SONIC AEROSPACE LIMITED /Subst Shrhdr /17-Jan-07 /Thomas Tay Nguen Cheong /Open market sale /-5740547

CHINA HONGXING SPORTS LIMITED /Subst Shrhdr /16-Jan-07 /CENTURION INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED /Married deal /-
10000000

CHINACAST COMM HLDGS LTD /Subst Shrhdr /11-Jan-07 /Intel Corporation /Open market sale /-23433751

CSE GLOBAL LTD /Subst Shrhdr /15-Jan-07 /United Overseas Bank Limited (UOB) /Open market sale /-4630000

DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD /Subst Shrhdr /16-Jan-07 /DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD /Open market sale /-166477000

FALMAC LIMITED /Subst Shrhdr /18-Jan-07 /United Overseas Bank Limited (UOB) /Open market sale /-2301000

FALMAC LIMITED /Subst Shrhdr /15-Jan-07 /United Overseas Bank Limited (UOB) /Open market sale /-750000

FIRSTLINK INV CORP LTD /Subst Shrhdr /16-Jan-07 /Putra Pacific Holdings Pte Ltd /Open market sale /-3075000

FIRSTLINK INV CORP LTD /Subst Shrhdr /15-Jan-07 /Putra Pacific Holdings Pte Ltd /Open market sale /-21409000

K1 VENTURES LIMITED /Subst Shrhdr /17-Jan-07 /GLOBATON INVESTMENTS LIMITED /Open market sale /-106529400

LANDWIND MEDICAL HOLDINGS LTD /Subst Shrhdr /17-Jan-07 /Echo Investment Holdings Limited /Open Market Purchase /3000000

LANDWIND MEDICAL HOLDINGS LTD /Subst Shrhdr /16-Jan-07 /Echo Invesment Holdings Limited /Open Market Purchase /17350000

LONGCHEER HOLDINGS LIMITED /Director /23-Nov-06 /Longpartner Investment Limited /Open market sale /-2880000

MACQUARIE INT'L INFRA FUND LTD /Subst Shrhdr /23-Nov-06 /ABU DHABI INVESTMENT AUTHORITY /Open market sale /-18760000

SAPPHIRE CORPORATION LIMITED /Subst Shrhdr /16-Jan-07 /UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED (UOB) /Open market sale /-30000000

SAPPHIRE CORPORATION LIMITED /Subst Shrhdr /15-Jan-07 /UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED (UOB) /Open market sale /-50000000

SEMBCORP MARINE LTD /Subst Shrhdr /12-Jan-07 /Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited (Temasek) /Open Market Purchase /
2662000


The Asian markets continue to do well despite to short selloff on the US markets over the past week. Short term traders
are the most happy people during such times in my opinion, this is really the time when stocks are picked by throwing
darts. Pigs are flying...

Over lunch at the Golden Shoe Food Centre today, I overheard (actually, evesdropping is more like it, heheh) two office
ladies talking about their purchases of Genting Int'l. One of them intends to keep her two lots for long-term, hope
she's right.

The China A Shares had a stellar year in 2006. I only got to know about it after reading the factsheet of the ABN Amro
China A Shares Fund - that is unfortunately only available to high-net-worth investors. That caused me to go digging for
historical price data of the Shanghai Stock Exchange... there's only one thing I can say about the market transparency
in China... it s*cks!

A number of analysts in the US continue to remain bearish (or slightly negative at best) about the US market. Some of
the reasons being cited were:

- Quarterly change in nominal GDP in the forth quarter has reached historical low
- Liquid assets as a percentage of debt in the US has dropped to 1.6%
- Inflation of 2.5% is still above the comfort zone of the Fed

I've made some improvements to the US Indicators chart over the weekend. A new series (or rather a new way of
displaying) is being added to the same chart of the Volatility oscillator. As seen from the chart, these two series
follow each other very closely, so now we have even more confirmation for trading signals. And with the volatility
oscillator reading still below '0', there should be abit more short term downside for the US Markets.


On the weekly NASDAQ chart, the 2380-2420 level is still holding up, but the MACD is looking a little weak.

Have a good week!
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2 Comments:

At 12:45 AM, Blogger Rorrimx said...

Hi SmokingFlax,

thanks for the useful information. Where do you obtain your list of Insider, Substantial Shareholder activity info from? Combing through the relevant SGX webpages, or via a publication that consolidates them like "The Edge"? And how do you decide which ones to show? Thanks and keep up the good work.

 
At 8:03 AM, Blogger SmokingFlax said...

The data is obtained from the SGX. The transactions that I look out for are those by large financial institutions and also significant buys/sells by company insiders. If you're interested to find out more, I recommend a book called "The Trivial Many Vs The Vital Few" (or something like that :)

 

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