MY TAKE ON INVESTING

Like everyone else, there is only one reason why I study, analyse and participate in the financial markets - and that is to make money. But the difference with me and most other people is that I am willing to use anything (legally) possible to do it. If counting the number of cockroaches that I see everyday gives me an edge in the market, I'll do it. If it works, I'll use it; be it keeping tabs on the economy, looking at charts and indicators (technical analysis), looking at value or growth potential (fundamental analysis), profits & earnings + other related market activity (quantitive analysis), through insider activity + consumer surveys (sentiment analysis) and yes even astrology.

I've spent over five years monitoring, studying, observing and trading the financial markets. My quest was to find out what makes the financial markets move, to find something substantial, something that will provide consistent monetary gains. I don't want to just accept what other authors say/write as gospel truth, I want to know why. In 2005, I took a masters degree in finance to see if what they teach in the university adds any value towards investing success - the answer is 'not really'. Investment knowledge builds up with time - what might seem unimportant to you now may become what you need to get you to the next 'level'. Such is my experience with fundamental, quantitative, economic and sentiment analysis.

What you see in this blog represents quite a number of item(s) and technique(s) that have met - like what W.D. Gann says - my '(utmost) satisfaction' and I hope that they can be of use to the investment pilgrim who's also on a quest for understanding and success.
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Wednesday, January 31, 2007

SGX Insider & Substantial Shareholder Activity from 22 - 31 Jan 07

Here are some of the more significant Insider and Substantial Shareholder transactions reported on the SGX (extracted from the emailed file) over the past week :

ADVANCED HOLDINGS LTD./ Subst Shrhdr/ 19-Jan-07/ FMR Corp/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -1000000

CELESTIAL NUTRIFOODS LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 22-Jan-07/ JF Asset Management (Singapore) Limited/ Open Market Purchase / 6000000

CG TECHNOLOGIES HOLDINGS LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 18-Jan-07/ The SFP Asia Master Fund Ltd./ Open Market Purchase / 2660000

CG TECHNOLOGIES HOLDINGS LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 17-Jan-07/ THE SFP ASIA MASTER FUND LTD/ Open Market Purchase / 1886000

CHINA SKY CHEM FIBRE CO./ Subst Shrhdr/ 29-Jan-07/ JF ASSET MANAGEMENT (SINGAPORE) LIMITED/ Purchase and sales of shares. / 9980000

CSE GLOBAL LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 24-Jan-07/ FMR Corp/ Market transaction. / 840000

DIGILAND INTERNATIONAL LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 23-Jan-07/ Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -43650000

DIGILAND INTERNATIONAL LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 22-Jan-07/ Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -153956000

DIGILAND INTERNATIONAL LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 19-Jan-07/ Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -166477000

DIGILAND INTERNATIONAL LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 18-Jan-07/ DBS Group Holdings Ltd/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -43650000

DIGILAND INTERNATIONAL LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 17-Jan-07/ DBS Group Holdings Ltd/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -153956000

GKE INTERNATIONAL LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 23-Jan-07/ BAN JOO LOGISTICS PTE LTD/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -8796000

HIAP SENG ENGINEERING LTD/ Director/ 23-Jan-07/ Cheng Buck Poh/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -21000000

HIAP SENG ENGINEERING LTD/ Director/ 23-Jan-07/ Tan Leau Kuee/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -9000000

HONGGUO INTL HOLDINGS LIMITED/ Director/ 25-Jan-07/ Miao Bingwen/ Open Market Purchase / 1750000

HOSEN GROUP LTD/ Director/ 25-Jan-07/ Chong Poh Soon/ Sales of Shares at Own Discretion. / -30000000

HOTUNG INVESTMENT HLDGS LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 25-Jan-07/ Overseas Asset Management (Cayman) Ltd/ Open Market Purchase / 1800000

JIUTIAN CHEMICAL GROUP LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 29-Jan-07/ Merrill Lynch & Co Inc/ Open Market Purchase / 2600000

JIUTIAN CHEMICAL GROUP LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 25-Jan-07/ United Overseas Bank Limited/ Open Market Purchase / 3000000

JIUTIAN CHEMICAL GROUP LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 25-Jan-07/ UOB Asset Management Ltd/ Open Market Purchase / 3000000

KOH BROTHERS GROUP LIMITED/ Director/ 24-Jan-07/ Koh Teak Huat/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -825000

KOH BROTHERS GROUP LIMITED/ Director/ 23-Jan-07/ Koh Tiat Meng/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -500000

KOH BROTHERS GROUP LIMITED/ Director/ 23-Jan-07/ Koh Tiat Meng/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -198000

KOH BROTHERS GROUP LIMITED/ Director/ 18-Jan-07/ Koh Teak Huat/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -200000

KOH BROTHERS GROUP LIMITED/ Director/ 16-Jan-07/ Koh Teak Huat/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -200000

KOH BROTHERS GROUP LIMITED/ Director/ 12-Jan-07/ Koh Teak Huat/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -200000

MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST/ Subst Shrhdr/ 25-Jan-07/ UBS AG/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -792000

MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST/ Subst Shrhdr/ 25-Jan-07/ Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited/ Open Market Purchase / 94429673

MEDIARING LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 22-Jan-07/ PARAMOUNT ASSETS INVESTMENTS PTE. LTD./ Open Market Purchase / 13785000

OSIM INTERNATIONAL LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 24-Jan-07/ Templeton Worldwide Inc/ Open Market Purchase / 6847000

ROLY INTERNATIONAL HLDGS LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 24-Jan-07/ Moon Capital Management LP/ Open Market Purchase / 4073000

ROLY INTERNATIONAL HLDGS LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 19-Jan-07/ Moon Capital Management LP/ Open Market Purchase / 4786015

THAI VILLAGE HOLDINGS LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 18-Jan-07/ Noble Asset Management Ltd/ Open Market Purchase / 5000000

TPV TECHNOLOGY LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 19-Jan-07/ Government of Singapore Investment Corporation/ - / 36789000

UNITED FIBER SYSTEM LIMITED/ Director/ 22-Jan-07/ Chia Quee Hock/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -3000000

UNITED FIBER SYSTEM LIMITED/ Director/ 19-Jan-07/ Chia Quee Hock/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -3000000

UNITED FIBER SYSTEM LIMITED/ Director/ 19-Jan-07/ Chia Quee Hock/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -2000000

YONGNAM HOLDINGS LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 24-Jan-07/ United Overseas Bank Limited/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -6000000

YONGNAM HOLDINGS LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 23-Jan-07/ United Overseas Bank Limited/ Sales in Open Market at Own Discretion / -9190000

YONGNAM HOLDINGS LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 22-Jan-07/ United Overseas Bank Limited/ Open market sales by UOB. / -7122000


As expected, insider and substantial shareholder transactions remain high as the market remains at high ground. Some of the more interesting transactions took place in Jiutian, Koh Brothers, TPV, UniFiber and Yongnam. Yongnam seems to have quite a large free market float as its directors have been selling over the past few weeks but the price seems to be holding up.

The Shanghai and Hang Seng Indices both declined by a fair bit on 31 Jan. But this decline has put the Hang Seng in short term oversold territory, so a bounce is probably coming pretty soon. As for the Nikkei, the stochastics have only crossed below the 50% mark, and probably has more downside. If the Nikkei slides, the Hang Seng would not be too far behind. The 30-day EMA seems to be the optimal line for the Nikkei for many months now.

I've been working as a temp in a private bank for third week now... and this will be my last week. I've got to be the most highly educated clerical staff ever... :D It was a good exposure to see how the place runs, and if private bankers were really as professional as what the industry makes them out to be. Well, all I have to say is "Same ko-yoh ('magic' ointment), different packaging". I'm amazed at the weight given by clients to the opinion of these people.

One of the reason (besides laziness) for the late update was because I was preparing a synonpsis for a friend who is interested in operationalising my investment model, just hope something concrete comes up (after all the false hopes I recieved over the past year). But if nobody believes in it, I do, after five years of work, I feel that I'm very near.

Oil prices have started to come alive once more, but is the move going to be substantial, I'll have to so some homework first. But if they do rise, then the possiblilty of a rate cut by the Fed in Q2 may not happen, depending on how much does the rise in oil price contribute to inflation. The research by HSBC Private Bank (and many other research houses) all believe that the falling US Property market will affect consumer spending, causing a slowdown in Q1, which gives the Fed a reason to ease the rates, setting the bulls loose once again....is that gonna be the case? Let's wait and see.

The fast line of the Market Breath Oscillator has moved to the high side on Tue, and its likely that the NASDAQ will move lower on Wed. However, the PCR oscillator is in bullish territory... while the Volatility Oscillator is not doing much. I made a rather interesting observation between the PCR line and the Options Volume today. Will comment on it on the next update.



And on the weekly chart, still the same story... signs of weakness, but no confirmation.



Have a good week!
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