SGX Insider and Substantial Shareholder transactions for 21 - 25 May 07 & Market Commentary

Hi all,

I've yet to download the SGX Insider and Substantial Shareholder transactions for the past week and will put them up together with next weeks commentary.


ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS COMMENTARY
-------------------------------------------------------

DAILY CHARTS:

As mentioned last week, the All Ordinaries did finish higher on monday (21 May 07). The immediate resistance of 6377 was penetrated on an intraday basis last monday but has failed to move above it again. The index then moved sideways for the next two days before falling on Thursday, pushing the stochastics into oversold region. The market breadth line also suggests that there's room on the upside in the next one to two days. I would place my buy trigger at 6320 and short trigger below 6245.

The STI made new highs last Tuesday and Wednesday but only to fall on Thursday and Friday. The intraday low made last Friday was something to behold, falling past the 2-week low in one day and moving back up to close relatively unchanged. That shows that the market is quite skittish, with people rushing to sell to lock in their profits. The stochastics is now at oversold level but the market breadth line is at the other end. The ideal situation would be to wait for the market breadth line to fall and go long in anticipation of it moving up together with the stochastics.

The Nikkei was almost the same last week - moving up on Monday and Tuesday, peaking on Wednesday and falling on Thursday and Friday. Going forward, the outlook of the Nikkei is the same as that of the Straits TImes Index - the possibility of a one or two day selldown and moving up after that.

WEEKLY CHARTS:

The the 2-week low of the indices remained unchanged on the weekly charts:
- All Ordinaries @ 6210 (2 week low not meaningful, using midpoint of 6290-6130 range)
- Nikkei 225 @ 17219
- Straits Times Index @ 3410

The Straits Times Index made a new high again last week, but closed lower. Weekly stochastics and MACD remains in high ground while the market breadth line remains in neutral territory. The long lower shadow suggests that the number of investors feeling fearful is on the rise.

The All Ordinaries makes a lower low for the second consecutive week but remains above the 6210 mark. So it's not time to put on the bear cap yet.

The Nikkei remains rangebound as its weekly stochastics continues to fall. The weekly Bollinger Bands remains narrow - just slightly above twice its average weekly range. The buy trigger for the Nikkei is 12830 - just above the consolidation range.

US MARKET COMMENTARY
--------------------------------------
It was a quiet week last week as far as release of economic data is concerned. Higher new home sales but lower existing home sales and higher crude inventories. Most of the data released are not known for their "market-moving" abilities.

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK
-----------------------------------
The NASDAQ composite fell last Wednesday and Thursday with an inside day on Friday. In japanese candlestick terminology, a harami has formed. But I would very much prefer to wait for a Harami-age (confirmation) before taking a position. Another reason being high market breadth readings while the stochastics is still going down does not show good returns.

On the close of last friday, here's what the short-term indicators are telling us:

(1) NASDAQ Market Breath Oscillator 2

Bounced from a significant low last Thursday to a high on Friday.

(2) Volatility Oscillator

Looks like a short-term peak

(3) Put-Call Ratio Oscillator

Similar to the Volatility oscillator. Suggesting a possibilty of a short term bottom.

(4) Stochastics Oscillator

Coming down

(5) Put-Call Ratio EMA :

Low put buying

(6) CBOE Equity Options Volume :

Falling - low interest in put options.

MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK
--------------------------------------

Here's how the indicators are shaping up:
Market Breadth Oscillator: Historically high reading.
Stochastics: Moved below the 50% level.
MACD: %k slightly above %d

Contrary to last week's expectation of the market closing higher, it made a new high but closed slightly lower instead. A good reason to cash out when the gains look good. The bear trigger remains unchanged at 2150 and because of the high market breadth reading, I'm not expecting an all out bull rally this week.

WHAT I'VE BEEN UP TO LATELY
----------------------------------------------------
Worked another 45 hours - excluding luch and break times - last week... still very overloaded. Worked 11 hours on Friday without lunch. Take a look at my daily tasks and tell me if you can fit lunch inside

845-930
1) Run Funds-Under-Management report
2) Run Transactions report
3) Run Processed Applications report
4) Run Processed Redemptions report
5) Print and report bank statements

930-1000
1) Receive mail
2) Date and time stamp them
3) Count the number of applications, redemptions & maintenance
4) Enter the amount, dealer group and adviser for applications for 2 funds
5) Do up an email and attach all report files
6) Print out the reports and email to be checked by a senior
7) Make amendments to report(s) or email if necessary
8) Send out the email

1000-1130
1) Process the applications
i) check if investor exists
ii) enter cheque details on cheque banking coversheet
iii) print the coversheet
iv) photocopy the coversheet with each cheque and all application forms
v) attach the photocopy behind the application forms
vi) enter investor details, bank account details and distribution instructions
vii) terrorism and public figure check
viii) enter the trade (i.e. assigning units to the investor)
viv) print out investor audit report to be checked by another person
x) get senior to check if the trade was entered correctly
2) Process the redemptions
i) go into archive
ii) search for investor folder
iii) check if signature on redemption request is the same as on application form
iv) enter the redemption details into the system
v) get senior to check and confirm
3) Receive the 2nd batch of mail at 1130
i) date and time stamp them
ii) process the applications and redemptions
4) Receive the yields for the retail funds
5) Receive the prices for the wholesale funds
6) Receive faxes for wholesale applications and redemptions

1130-230
1) Process the yields
2) Update yield checklist report
3) Upload the prices
4) Process wholesale applications
5) Process wholesale redemptions
- All retail and wholesale redemptions must be finished by 215 tough luck if there's too many
6) Check amount for each redemption and exit fees
7) Check amount for each wholesale redemption received on previous day
8) Prepare emails to be sent at 230
i) Add up number and total amount of retail applications
ii) Investor number, amount and name of each redemption
iii) How much money to be transferred into the fund's operating account
iv) How much money to be transferred from fund's operating account for redemptions
v) How much money to be transferred from fund's operating account for wholesale redemptions
9) Continue to process retail and wholesale applications
10)Receive faxes for wholesale applications and redemptions

230-400
1) Run and print scheduled payments report
2) Prepare and print coversheet for payments report
3) Get team leader or manager to generate ABA file (for direct crediting of investors' account)
4) Ring Treasury and get them to print out the ABA
5) Go down to treasury to collect the ABA
6) Attach the ABA and get 2 seniors to sign the coversheet
7) Photocopy the lot
8) Bring down the originals back to treasury
9) Continue to process the retail and wholesale applications
10)Prepare email to sent at 4pm
i) add up total amount of wholesale applications received
ii) add up total amount of wholesale redemptions received
iii) add up total amount of wholesale redemptions received previous day
iv) print email
v) bring email and all relevant faxes to senior for checking

400-500
1) Generate letters for new investors
2) Generate letters for new investors' advisers
3) Generate letters for wholesale applications
4) Generate letters for wholesale redemptions
5) Go to print room, put in letterheads for the fund
6) Go back and print out all relevant letters
7) Print out fax cover sheets for all wholesale applications and redemptions
8) Fax the letters for wholesale applications and redemptions
9) Wait for confirmation that the faxes have been sent
10)Photocopy all letters
11)Fold and insert letters into envelopes
12)Collate the documents for filing and inclusion into daily tradepack

Now that you've seen my daily tasks, do you see the word "Lunch" anywhere?

These are just the daily tasks... I have not even included the phone calls, the emails, the peculiar requests, and also updating of investor details (e.g. change of address, change of adviser, etc etc etc).

On top of that, there are weekly Regular Savings Plans to process, fortnightly upfront commissions to advisers, monthly regular withdrawl instructions, monthly trail commissions to advisers and monthly fund distributions.

I think its about time to move.

Have a gd week!

SGX Insider and Substantial Shareholder transactions for 14 - 18 May 07 & Market Commentary

Hi all,

I've yet to download the SGX Insider and Substantial Shareholder transactions for the past week and will put them up together with next weeks commentary.


ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS COMMENTARY
-------------------------------------------------------

DAILY CHARTS:

For the past week, the All Ordinaries continues to move within the consolidation range between 6277 and 6377. The ASX market breadth line is again at short term reversal level and may well see the index finish higer this coming Monday (21 May 07). The Stochastics has crossed over to the upside. The immediate resistance is the top of the consolidation range at 6377. I would refer to the weekly chart to get an idea of the possibility of an upside breakout and the continuation of the rally.

The Straits Times Index was also "sort-of" rangebound except that it is somewhat positively inclined. The Market Breadth line is in neutral zone, which usually means that the prevailing trend is likely to continue. The reading on the stochastics is pretty high - something that I'm still trying to accept if I were to go long... I prefer to buy low stochastics readings.

The Nikkei 225 is the underperformer of the lot over these past few weeks. But I like how the indicators look here best. The Market Breadth line is low, and the stochastics is starting to turn over in oversold region. Although there is every possibility that the index can drift lower, the way the other regional indices are looking at the moment don't seem to suggest that happening - unless the All Ordinaries break down from the consolidation zone and the Straits Times index starts heading south. So Monday seems like an up day for the Japanese bourse.

WEEKLY CHARTS:

The the 2-week low of the indices have shifted on the weekly charts:
- All Ordinaries @ 6210 (2 week low not meaningful, using midpoint of 6290-6130 range)
- Nikkei 225 @ 17219
- Straits Times Index @ 3410

It was the Straits Times index's turn to make a new high last week; which is attributed (in my opinion) of the low weekly market breadth reading. The bullish undertone is still there and we may see it make another new high this coming week.

The All Ordinaries continue to look bullish and I've shifted the sell trigger upwards as seen above.

The Nikkei remains rangebound as its weekly stochastics continues to fall. The weekly Bollinger Bands are narrowing to just slightly above twice its average weekly range. The buy trigger for the Nikkei is 12830 - just above the consolidation range.

US MARKET COMMENTARY
--------------------------------------
The CPI for April fell 0.2% from its prior reading whike the Core CPI increased 0.1% of its prior reading. Economic reports showed that consumer spending is supported by low unemployment and the low US dollar. Capacity utilization remains relatively unchanged. The only unexpected data over the past week was the reading on the Conference Board's Leading Indicators Index; it came in significantly lower than prior reading and also lower than market consensus. Some digging needs to be done to determine the trend of the leading indicators to see if it is indeed turning down. If so, the US economy would most likely have well and truly peaked.

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK
-----------------------------------
The NASDAQ composite bounced up from last Tuesday's low on low stochastics reading and market breadth levels. But Monday might see the index pause for a day or two before revealing where it wants to go.

On the close of last friday, here's what the short-term indicators are telling us:

(1) NASDAQ Market Breath Oscillator 2

Is now at a relatively high level after recovering from tuesday's low.

(2) Volatility Oscillator

Formed what looks to be a rounding top.

(3) Put-Call Ratio Oscillator

Similar to the Volatility oscillator. Suggesting a short term bottom (back on last tuesday)

(4) Stochastics Oscillator

Moving up

(5) Put-Call Ratio EMA :

Fluctuating at high call buying levels

(6) CBOE Equity Options Volume :

Moderate to heavy - interest in call options.

MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK
--------------------------------------

Here's how the indicators are shaping up:
Market Breadth Oscillator: Historically low reading.
Stochastics: Crossed to the downside.
MACD: %k remains above %d

A mixed reading this week, with the market breadth line at low level while the stochastics has made a downside crossover - a bearish suggestion. The bear cross on the stochastics will only be confirmed if the most recent low pivot (2150) is broken. And in the mean time, the coming week has a higher probabilty of finishing higher.

WHAT I'VE BEEN UP TO LATELY
----------------------------------------------------
Worked 45 hours last week... I was really overloaded. Things will probably not get better this coming week as a colleague (a guy from Ireland on a temp contract) just left on Friday to go to Melbourne - as part of his Australian tour - for a couple of months and find temp work while he's there. I guess that's the main difference between the young people in Singapore/Malaysia and the other countries. Young people from Korea, Japan, and all the other western countries leave their country in their early 20s to go travelling. Many of the Asians work as waiters/waitresses and shop assistants. I've yet to see them working as temps in the finance sector...probably that's because the temp roles are all taken by bachelor and master degree holders.... heheh. But with that said, working temp in Australia is better than working temp in Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia.... etc... hands down.

Have a gd week!

SGX Insider and Substantial Shareholder transactions for 07 - 11 May 07 & Market Commentary

Hi all,

The raw data file significant Insider and Substantial Shareholders transactions reported on the Singapore Stock Exchange in the past week can be downloaded here (pls rename to .csv):
http://stocklogic.007ihost.com/SGX%20Change%20of%20Interest%2029%20Apr%20-%2004%20May%2007.html


ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS COMMENTARY
-------------------------------------------------------

DAILY CHARTS:

As of last friday, market breadth readings for both the ASX (Australian Stock Exchange) and the TSE (Tokyo Stock Exchange) are at levels where the markets have a high tendency to br up the next day (which is Monday - 14 May). Coupled that with a rally on the US side, finishing higher is almost a certainty. The only drawback is that the markets may gap at the opening and present no trading opportunity. With the benefit of hindsight, the Asia Pac markets did finish higher, with the Nikkei and the Stratis Times Index gapping on the open and traded in a narrow range for the day. The only index that presented an opportunity was the Australian All Ordinaries. You will not be able to see the candle formed today (14/5) because the snapshot was until last fridays close.

Many of the indices are moving sideways; and if the US finishes strong today (14/5), the AsiaPac markets would once again breakout on the upside.

WEEKLY CHARTS:

The the 2-week low of the indices have remained unchanged at these levels on the weekly charts:
- All Ordinaries @ 6140
- Nikkei 225 @ 17219
- Straits Times Index @ 3350

Only the All Ordinaries made a new high last week, while the other indices closed inside the range of the previous 2 weeks. The consolidation is most obvious for the Nikkei225. I would most likely go short once the low levels stated above for the indices are broken.

US MARKET COMMENTARY
--------------------------------------
The budget deficit for the US increased again; which I think would not be surprising to anyone by now. Budget deficits would probably have a more long term effect and would probably be more confined to the foreign currencies arena. Retail sales numbers (with or without automobile sales) for the month of April are down, confirming the weakened consumer confidence and sentiment numbers. Core PPI remained unchanged for April, but below the expectation of the market.


SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK
-----------------------------------
The NASDAQ composite fell by over 40 points last Thursday and recovered 28 on Friday. And with the market breadth at a significantly high level, I'm not expecting any big up move on Monday (14/5). But a close above the 2570 mark anytime within the week would mean that the bulls are still in control.

On the close of last friday, here's what the short-term indicators are telling us:

(1) NASDAQ Market Breath Oscillator 2

Shot up to a very high level in one day, and the oscillator would most likely be falling a bit this week, so I'm not expecting anything exciting (except on the downside) on the upside until it comes back down (nearer to or below zero)

(2) Volatility Oscillator

Still moving sideways near the zero line, not providing any forecasting value.

(3) Put-Call Ratio Oscillator

Fell to -0.1 suggesting the formation of a short term top which led to the decline on Thursday. Will need to move up to 0.1 for a buy signal (i.e. suggesting a short term bottom)

(4) Stochastics Oscillator

Is moving down, and may go either way. Price (or index value in this case) is still the ultimate determinant (simply because the stochastic is calculated using past index closing values.

(5) Put-Call Ratio EMA :

Has continued to move upwards (i.e. more put buying) despite the index recovering by 28 points on Friday. But it will most likely fall if the index starts to move higher.

(6) CBOE Equity Options Volume :

Falling - put buying not strong = crowd still bullish

2530 is the short-term short (trade) trigger and 2575 is the short-term long trigger.

MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK
--------------------------------------
The NASDAQ Composite made a new high last week but fell to close within the previous week's range.

Here's how the indicators are shaping up:
Market Breadth Oscillator: Fell again after rising for a week.
Stochastics: Still overbought
MACD: %k remains above %d

Although the index has gone up when this indicator is at this level in times past, but the overbought stochastics is causing some concern for me, which is causing me to have a slightly more bearish outlook in the coming weeks. How the index moves these few weeks may provide some indication of the state the market is in.

The 2-week low bear trigger remains unchanged at 2505. The reason why I use a 2-week low as a trigger is because the market can at times, take a few weeks to turn around. But the 2-week trigger level can remain even after 3,4 or 5 weeks down the road. This usually happens when a sideways consolidation starts to form.

MONTHLY INDICATORS CHART

I'm including the chart this week as well because I've included the data for Apr's Retail Sales. As mentioned last week, all the indicators except for the consumer confidence and sentiment are in no-man's land. The market can virtually go anywhere (although that's what it does all the time, but it's not providing any clues at the moment)

WHAT I'VE BEEN UP TO LATELY
----------------------------------------------------
Sometimes, I wonder if I should be commenting on the economic data when it's quite obvious that I use alot of technical analysis. The economic data are useful (to me) only if it has forcasting value. I am still working on my medium term analysis (i.e. the monthly economic data rate-of-change chart). That is the only part of my analysis that does not use technical analysis, but rather more of pattern recognition and using past market behaviour to locate extremes as entry points for medium term positions.

The number of visitors to this blog has also declined quite abit this month after setting a record high for April. Most visits are less than one minute anyway. So it seems like my plan of getting people to click my Google Ads are not working :)

I included alot of nonsense in the weekly commentary in the past because there's not much to write. But now that my functions for downloading and processing daily data for the AsiaPac indices are up and running, the commentary should start to get better, and the commentary + analysis more to the point because the readers will be able to see the charts themselves. I'm a very visual person by nature and I believe a picture tells a thousand words.... so more pictures, less words.

I'm abit tired of waiting for a good trading opportunity to present itself and am very tempted to just take a position... but I know that I'll probably lose money if I do that. Patience.

Have a gd week!

SGX Insider and Substantial Shareholder transactions for 30 Apr - 04 May 07 & Market Commentary

Hi all,

The raw data file significant Insider and Substantial Shareholders transactions reported on the Singapore Stock Exchange in the past week can be downloaded here (pls rename to .csv):
http://stocklogic.007ihost.com/SGX%20Change%20of%20Interest%2029%20Apr%20-%2004%20May%2007.html

I think I'll probably leave the file unsorted for the time being until I find a way to automate the sorting process. This week, there were some download problems - probably too many people downloading the data from the server that they changed the html code a little.

ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS COMMENTARY
-------------------------------------------------------
The markets rallied again in the last week after correcting for a day following in the footsteps of the US market.

So my view of a bearish market was not on the money since the correction only lasted a day. But that's how the market works... and that's the thing that keeps me on thinking, and continuing to finetune my analysis.

The Nikkei 225 remained almost unchanged for the week due to public holidays in Japan on the 3rd and 4th of May. The the 2-week low of the indices have now shifted up to these levels:
- All Ordinaries @ 6140
- Nikkei 225 @ 17219
- Straits Times Index @ 3350

The Market Breadth Oscillator for the Straits Times Index recovered after three weeks of decline with the index making a nwe high. But as you can see on the SGX daily chart (this week's new addition), the stochastics have gone back up to extreme overbought level and the index has also closed outside the upper bollinger band. I'd expect the index to move sideways or correct slightly for a couple of days.

Since all the 2-week lows of the indices all remained intact, it seems like the bear is still hibernating.

US MARKET COMMENTARY
--------------------------------------
The more noteworthy economic data that came out over the past week were personal income, personal spending and the Chicago PMI. Personal income remained unchanged but personal spending fell below the previous reading as well as the market consensus; so it seems like consumers are still tightening their belts. The Chicago PMI also came in below previous reading and market consensus.

overall, the data that's been coming out over the past couple of weeks were not very pretty. Once the market confirms the data, maybe that's when a more substantial correction will set in.

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK
-----------------------------------
The Nasdaq Composite corrected for a day before recovering to close somewhat unchanged for the week. Two spinning top candles were formed on thursday and friday. Spinning tops after a rally usually signal momentum loss.

On the close of last friday, here's what the short-term indicators are telling us:
(1) NASDAQ Market Breath Oscillator 2 : 0.14
(2) Volatility Oscillator : -0.007
(3) Put-Call Ratio Oscillator : 0.02
(4) Stochastics Oscillator : over 95%
(5) Put-Call Ratio EMA : Fluctuating quite abit, but looks to be on the rise
(6) CBOE Equity Options Volume : Moderate

The MBO fell from the peak it made last wednesday.

The Volatility and PCR Oscillators are starting to look like the mid-Aug'06 to mid-Nov'06 period where the market advanced steadily, never correcting for more than two back-to-back days.

The slight rise in the average PCR indicates a slight pick up in put buying.

The two spinning tops and an oversold stochastics is making me suspicious about the index rallying strongly in the short term.

MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK
--------------------------------------
The Index closed up for another week, and not surprisingly, causing the weekly MBO to rise for the week.

Here's how the indicators are shaping up:
MBO: Rose to 0.227
Stochastics: Still overbought
MACD: %k remains above %d

The reason why I use a 2-week low as a trigger is because the market can at times, take a few weeks to turn around.

The outlook remains unchanged with the possibility of trend continuation but with the likelihood of a top forming. The 2-week low bear trigger has been shifted up to 2505.

As promised, I've attached my Monthly Indicators chart this week and will probably do it on a monthly basis. As seen from the chart, both series for consumer sentiment (The Consumer Sentiment Index by the University of Michigan and the Consumer Confidence Index by the Conference Board) are below '0'and have seen market rallying in the next month (which is May'07 in this case)

The series for Retail Sales and the NYSE Debt-Cash ratio only have data up to Mar'07 and are in no-man's land.

WHAT I'VE BEEN UP TO LATELY
----------------------------------------------------
A colleague who's very experienced in the Unit Registry spent his last day in the team last friday and will be moving into fund accounting in another team. It's definitely a step forward for him. Also, Aberdeen will also cease to be a client soon, and have requested quite a few things to be done before they 'leave'. I was told that the relationship with Aberdeen went bad because of previous administrators made alot of errors. I wonder how they got the job in the first place.

Have a gd week!

SGX Insider and Substantial Shareholder transactions for 23 - 27 Apr 07 & Market Commentary

Hi all,

The raw data file significant Insider and Substantial Shareholders transactions reported on the Singapore Stock Exchange in the past week can be downloaded here (pls rename to .csv):
http://stocklogic.007ihost.com/SGX%20Change%20of%20Interest%2023-27%20Apr%2007.html

I'm unable to sort out the file this week because of work commitments. It was actually my intention to use the data that I've been downloading to chart the trend of insider buying/selling for the Singapore market as well as for individual stocks. But the nature of which the transactions are filed makes it quite complicated to process by software, which is why I've sorted them out manually all this while.

ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS COMMENTARY
-------------------------------------------------------
Last week was a quiet week, both on the news front as well as the technical front.

Last week's analysis called for a sideways or corrective move and things played out quite well. It was a week for short term traders.

The All Ordinaries and the Nikkei 225 both fell more than the Straits Times Index and their stochastics have crossed over. The immediate support levels for these indices are as follows:
- All Ordinaries @ 6050
- Nikkei 225 @ 17219
- Straits Times Index @ 3290

The Market Breadth Oscillator for the Straits Times Index has declined for a third week in a row showing that the number of gainers is tapering off. This just shows that the market internals is weak, but the market may or may not correct. We'll just have to wait for confirmation.

Overall, the picture from the technical point of view remains unchanged - bearish, with the market still able to continue to move up at a very gradual pace. But things do look more bearish than last week.

I have started to record the daily market breadth data for the Tokyo Stock Exchange and hopefully I will be able to integrate it into the Nikkei chart next week (fingers crossed). Another thing that has been dragging for quite some time is the chart for the Hang Seng Index, and hopefully that will come soon.

US MARKET COMMENTARY
--------------------------------------
The economic data that came out over the past week were the COnsumer Confidence, COnsumer Sentiment, and the advanced reading for Q1 GDP. The GDP came in lower than last quarter as well as below expectations. Consumer Confidence was down while the COnsumer Sentiment increased slightly. In the next update, I will be showing my monthly indicators chart with the Consumer Confidence thrown in. So stay tuned.

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK
-----------------------------------
The Nasdaq Composite continued to move up while the Asia-Pacific markets lagged. Some of the indicators have started to show perculiarities.

On the close of last friday, here's what the short-term indicators are telling us:
(1) NASDAQ Market Breath Oscillator 2 : -0.22
(2) Volatility Oscillator : 0.038
(3) Put-Call Ration Oscillator : -0.01
(4) Stochastics Oscillator : Increased to >95%
(5) Put-Call Ration EMA : Very Slow Decline
(6) CBOE Equity Options Volume : Moderate

The MBO has started to fall but the index did not follow. A slight negative reading in oversold stochastics have a high probabiliy of the market coming down in a day or two.

The Volatility and PCR Oscillators are rising together with the index, something that has not been observed in the past 180 days and I have no idea why this is occurring.

The slow falling PCR suggests that the bulls might be losing steam. The PCR is also at historically low levels (high call buying).

So the outlook for the coming week suggests that a correction might materialise.

MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK
--------------------------------------
The Index closed up for another week, outperforming all other Asian Pacific markets. The index still looks strong but internals are showing signs of weakness.

Here's how the indicators are shaping up:
MBO: Fell to -0.024
Stochastics: Overbought, but starting to turn over
MACD: %k remains above %d

The decline of the MBO for third week running indicates that the market is losing breath. Couple that with stochastics that's starting to turn over, we are seeing some bearishness starting to come in.

The outlook remains unchanged although now somewhat more bearish but still with the possibility of trend continuation but with the likelihood of a top forming. I would say that a downtrend is underway once the index falls below 2490.

WHAT I'VE BEEN UP TO LATELY
----------------------------------------------------
Havn't been up to much over the past week except working, and keep thinking of new ways to look at the markets and how to increase my analysis accuracy.

Have a gd week!