SGX Insider & Substantial Shareholder Activity from 20 - 24 Nov 06

Here are some of the more significant change of beneficial ownership transactions reported on the SGX for the past week:

BANYAN TREE HOLDINGS LIMITED, 21-Nov-06, The Capital Group Companies Inc, Bot 3143000 Shares
BANYAN TREE HOLDINGS LIMITED, 20-Nov-06, The Capital Group Companies Inc, Sold 555000 Shares
CNA GROUP LTD., 30-Oct-06 POPULUS FUND / NORDEA BANK FINLAND PLC, Bot 2768000 Shares
CNA GROUP LTD., 1-Nov-06, POPULUS FUND (Mutual Fund/Registered in Finland), Bot 1900000 Shares
CNA GROUP LTD., 8-Nov-06, POPULUS FUND (Mutual Fund/Registered in Finland), Bot 6745000 Shares
COSCO CORPORATION (S) LTD, 21-Nov-06 Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited, Bot 67612000 Shares
DEVOTION ECO-THERMAL LIMITED, 17-Nov-06 London Asia Chinese Private Equity Fund Limited, Bot 13000000 Shares
DMX TECHNOLOGIES GROUP LTD, 16-Nov-06 Legg Mason International Equities (Singapore) Pte. Limited, Sold 7007000 Shares
HLG ENTERPRISE LIMITED, 22-Nov-06 Davos Investment Holdings Private Limited (Davos), Bot 196201374 Shares
MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST, 17-Nov-06 Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited, Bot 7240000 Shares
RAFFLES HOLDINGS LIMITED, 17-Nov-06 Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited, Bot 155199714 Shares
SARIN TECHNOLOGIES LTD, 20-Nov-06 Chartered Asset Management Pte Ltd, Bot 1621000 Shares
UNISTEEL TECHNOLOGY LTD, 21-Nov-06, FMR Corp., Bot 1455000 Shares
YELLOW PAGES(SINGAPORE)LIMITED, 17-Nov-06, Global Advisory Group Pte Ltd, Bot 5136000 Shares

Perhaps the transaction by Temasek would shed some light on the recent run by Cosco. Elsewhere, both the FTSE and Nikkei have reached short-term oversold levels while the NASDAQ remained in overbought region with very little movement as suggested by the declining volatility oscillator last week. Will the US market move down to join the FTSE and the Nikkei or will it be the other way around? I'm still of the opinion that the US market looks a little on the high side.

The put-call ratio has dropped to Mar 06 levels (before that big selldown that started in April). From the chart above, call buying actually took off more significantly after the markets have rallied quite abit... seems like everyone only feels comfortable to go long after the trend is well and truly underway. The volatility oscillator has turned up back to '0' again, but the Advance-Decline line has still not fallen low enough for a high probability short-term trade.

This chart and the one below should have been shown early this month when the October data became available. The one above shows the change in the NASDAQ composite, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the NYSE Margin-Debt Ratio. Back in July when the values of the NASDAQ and Consumer Sentiment fell to historical low levels, I calmed a friend who was quite heavily invested in the Hong Kong market (he happened to be a 'gut-feel' investor like 80% of us) that the probaility of the markets turning back around was quite high. If the market could bounce in 2001 and 2002 in the midst of a 3 and a half year recession, it can certainly bounce back in July.

The final chart of this week is the forecast chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Index till 2008. The Dow has now reached a point where the forecast predicts a downturn. Although there is every possibility that a downturn may not happen at all, but the forecast has held up really well over the past couple of years that I've got to give some weight to what it's suggesting. And analysing this chart together with the Consumer Sentiment rate-of-change, I would bet my money that a correction is starting when the weekly NASDAQ falls below its 10 or 20 EMA (Exponential Moving Average).

Have a good week!

 

SGX Insider & Substantial Shareholder Activity from 13 - 17 Nov 06

Here are the details of some of the more significant insider and substantial shareholder transactions on the SGX for the past week:

Wasatch Advisors - Advanced Holdings - Sold 790,000 shares
Arisaig ASEAN Find - Aussino Group - Bot 6,599,510 shares
Temasek Group - CapComm Trust - Sold 567,451 shares
Fir Tree Value Master Fund - Chinacast Comm - Bot 4,028,000 shares
Sembcorp Industries + Marine - Cosco Corp - Sold 3,000,000 shares
The Capital Group - GES Int'l - Sold 17,000,000 shares
Equity Ventures - Hengxin - Sold 16,800,000 shares
Paramount Asset Investments - Mediaring Ltd - Bot 5,760,000 shares
Chartered Asset Mgmt - Sarin Tech - Bot 3,076,000 shares
Global Advisory Group (HSBC) - Yellow Pages - Bot 110,000 shares

On the US side, the earnings season is coming to an end, and I've complied the performance of the companies that had earnings estimates(i.e. those that didnt have analyst coverage were not included) :
Oct 16 - 20
Beat Estimate - 105
Missed Estimate - 34
Equalled Estimate - 23

Oct 23 - 27
Beat Estimate - 648
Missed Estimate - 258
Equalled Estimate - 129

Oct 30 - Nov 03
Beat Estimate - 503
Missed Estimate - 290
Equalled Estimate - 112

Nov 06 - 10
Beat Estimate - 315
Missed Estimate - 246
Equalled Estimate - 67

Nov 13 - 17
Beat Estimate - 64
Missed Estimate - 49
Equalled Estimate - 10



From the stats, there were more companies that beat their estimates than those that did not.The US market continued to rally while the Nikkei and FTSE lagged behind. The FTSE dropped over 70pts last friday, and I wonder if it'll have any adverse effect on the global markets. Option buyers on the CBOE have switched from buying puts (the week before) to buying calls(last week) and the buying volume was even higher than the week before. So which group belonged to the informed investors and which group belonged to the uninformed crowd? Volatility has also started to fall over the past week. Low volatility levels usually signal that the market might start to correct or be rangebound. The market breadth oscillator still has some room on the downside before the probability of another good rally becomes significant...

Have a gd wk! 

SGX Insider & Substantial Shareholder Activity from 06 - 10 Nov 06

Some of the institutional and fund trades over the past week are:
JP Morgan - CSE Global
JF Asset Mgmt - Ferrochina
Tiedemann Global Emerging Markets LP - Advanced Module Group
Merrill Lynch - JiuTian Chemical (Share Placement)
The Capital Group Companies Inc - Bio Treat
The Capital Group Companies Inc - Olam
Third Avenue Management LLC - WBL

I'm currently busy preparing for my exams so didnt really have much time for analysis. But equity options volume on the CBOE shot up to significant levels last Wed and Thur as put volume for these 2 days were highest in the last 2 weeks . Seems like people are starting to buy some insurance for their portfolios.The slow stochastics indicator is at oversold level for the Nikkei225 , is turning down on the FTSE100 and at overbought level on the Nasdaq Composite.

I'm currently looking for data on block trades for stocks on the NYSE, so if anyone knows where I can find them (for free :), pls let me know... academic studies shows that block trades executed through the exchange have high informational content relative to off-market ones (i.e. informed trading) and I'm trying to see if that's true.

SGX Insider & Substantial Shareholder Activity from 30 Oct - 03 Nov 06

Here are the insider and substantial shareholder transactions on the SGX for the past week. Some of the institutional and fund trades are:

Legg Mason - Cambridge Indust Trust
UBS - First Engineering
UBS - Mapletree Log
HSBC - Nera Elec
Morgan Stanley Entities - UIC

There has been a barrage of negative economic data on the US front for the past week, but the indices seem to be holding up. The earnings estimates of the Nasdaq100 components shows that:

Analysts increased the earnings estimates for 15 stocks and cut earnings estimates for 10. The average change in estimates was about 9% for the 15 stocks and -5% for the 10 stocks with lowered estimates. So the sentiment still appears to be mildly positive.

In my opinion, the most worrying indicator for the US is the inverted yield curve. I think it was either Merrill or JP Morgan that's expecting short-term rates to increase again in the next yr but another powerhouse (either Goldman or Morgan Stanley) is expecting the Fed to lower the rates. So, no clear cut indication there.

On the short term technical front, both the Nikkei and FTSE indices have reached oversold levels.... is there going to be a rebound or dead-cat bounce? I'm not guessing.

An interesting side note, a friend of mine who has been following the property boom in Western Aust (where median prices of Perth and Darwin have overtaken Melbourne) that's fueled by the mining boom in the region, is expecting things to cool down soon now that the 'hot' money is tapering off.

Have a gd week!