MY TAKE ON INVESTING

Like everyone else, there is only one reason why I study, analyse and participate in the financial markets - and that is to make money. But the difference with me and most other people is that I am willing to use anything (legally) possible to do it. If counting the number of cockroaches that I see everyday gives me an edge in the market, I'll do it. If it works, I'll use it; be it keeping tabs on the economy, looking at charts and indicators (technical analysis), looking at value or growth potential (fundamental analysis), profits & earnings + other related market activity (quantitive analysis), through insider activity + consumer surveys (sentiment analysis) and yes even astrology.

I've spent over five years monitoring, studying, observing and trading the financial markets. My quest was to find out what makes the financial markets move, to find something substantial, something that will provide consistent monetary gains. I don't want to just accept what other authors say/write as gospel truth, I want to know why. In 2005, I took a masters degree in finance to see if what they teach in the university adds any value towards investing success - the answer is 'not really'. Investment knowledge builds up with time - what might seem unimportant to you now may become what you need to get you to the next 'level'. Such is my experience with fundamental, quantitative, economic and sentiment analysis.

What you see in this blog represents quite a number of item(s) and technique(s) that have met - like what W.D. Gann says - my '(utmost) satisfaction' and I hope that they can be of use to the investment pilgrim who's also on a quest for understanding and success.
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Monday, March 12, 2007

SGX Insider and Substantial Shareholders Transactions 05 - 09 Mar 2007 & Market Commentary

Here are the more signigicant transactions reported on the SGX over the past week:

ADVANCE SCT LIMITED/ Director/ 5-Mar-07/ Samuel Ang King Wee/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 250000

AEM-EVERTECH HOLDINGS LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 6-Mar-07/ Atlantis Investment Management Ltd/ Open Market Purchase/ Single/ 1000000

AEM-EVERTECH HOLDINGS LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 26-Feb-07/ Atlantis Asian Recovery Fund/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 1000000

AEM-EVERTECH HOLDINGS LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 27-Feb-07/ Atlantis Investment Management Ltd/ Open Market Purchase/ Single/ 1300000

AEM-EVERTECH HOLDINGS LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 2-Mar-07/ Atlantis Investment Management Ltd/ Open Market Purchase/ Single/ 1500000

ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST/ Subst Shrhdr/ 25-Jan-07/ Macquarie Bank Limited/ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 2238000

ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST/ Subst Shrhdr/ 22-Dec-06/ Macquarie Bank Limited/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 2555000

ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST/ Subst Shrhdr/ 7-Mar-07/ Macquarie Bank Limited/ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 10361574

ASIA ENTERPRISES HOLDING LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 5-Mar-07/ Chong Thim Pheng Winstedt/ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 511000

ASIA SILK HOLDINGS LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 7-Mar-07/ Best Plus Developments Limited/ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 393000

ASIAN MICRO HOLDINGS LTD/ Director/ 5-Mar-07/ Lim Kee Liew/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 3000000

BAN JOO & COMPANY LIMITED/ Director/ 1-Feb-07/ Chin Pang Joo/ Open Market Sale/ No Info/ -29000945

BAN JOO & COMPANY LIMITED/ Director/ 1-Feb-07/ Chin Chit/ MARRIED DEAL/ No Info/ -27340945

BEST WORLD INTERNATIONAL LTD/ Director/ 2-Mar-07/ HOAN BENG MUI DORA/ Open Market Sale/ No Info/ -8250000

BEST WORLD INTERNATIONAL LTD/ Director/ 2-Mar-07/ HUANG BAN CHIN/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 1200000

BRIGHT WORLD PRECISION MAC LTD/ Director/ 6-Mar-07/ Wang Weiyao/ OCBC Securities Pte Ltd/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 352000

BRIGHT WORLD PRECISION MAC LTD/ Director/ 7-Mar-07/ Wang Weiyao/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 882000

BROTHERS (HOLDINGS) LIMITED/ Director/ 1-Mar-07/ Koh Tiak Chye/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 720000

CAPITARETAIL CHINA TRUST/ Subst Shrhdr/ 5-Mar-07/ The Capital Group Companies Inc./ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 5049100

CHEMOIL ENERGY LIMITED/ Director/ 5-Mar-07/ ROBERT VISWANATHAN CHANDRAN/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 500000

CHEMOIL ENERGY LIMITED/ Director/ 7-Mar-07/ ROBERT VISWANATHAN CHANDRAN/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 588000

CHINA LIFESTYLE F&B GROUP LTD/ Director/ 7-Mar-07/ Zheng Yu Long/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 650000

CHINA LIFESTYLE F&B GROUP LTD/ Director/ 7-Mar-07/ Zheng Yu Long/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 650000

CHINA LIFESTYLE F&B GROUP LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 8-Mar-07/ Orange Capital LLC/ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 697000

CHINACAST COMM HLDGS LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 22-Dec-06/ Fir Tree Value Master Fund LP/ Open Market Sale/ Single/ -31703000

CITYSPRING INFRASTRUCT TRUST/ Subst Shrhdr/ 6-Mar-07/ FMR Corp/ Open Market Sale/ Series/ -2141000

COSCO CORPORATION (S) LTD/ Director/ 2-Mar-07/ Lee Fook Choy/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 300000

COSCO CORPORATION (S) LTD/ Director/ 7-Mar-07/ Ji Hai Sheng/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 780000

DIGILAND INTERNATIONAL LTD/ Director/ 2-Mar-07/ Dr. Philip Poh Siew Chuan/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 3000000

DMX TECHNOLOGIES GROUP LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 6-Mar-07/ Aegis Portfolio Managers Pte Ltd/ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 529000

DMX TECHNOLOGIES GROUP LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 8-Mar-07/ Aegis Portfolio Managers Pte Ltd/ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 957000

DMX TECHNOLOGIES GROUP LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 7-Mar-07/ Aegis Portfolio Managers Pte Ltd/ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 1627000

F J BENJAMIN HOLDINGS LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 7-Mar-07/ Raffles Investments Limited/ Open Market Purchase/ Single/ 28500000

GEMS TV HOLDINGS LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 2-Mar-07/ JF Asset Management (Singapore) Limited/ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 8315000

GUTHRIE GTS LTD/ Director/ 2-Mar-07/ Putra Masagung (MP)/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 30706000

HI-P INTERNATIONAL LIMITED/ Director/ 5-Mar-07/ Yao Hsiao Tung/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 613000

HI-P INTERNATIONAL LIMITED/ Director/ 7-Mar-07/ Yao Hsiao Tung/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 1157000

HI-P INTERNATIONAL LIMITED/ Director/ 2-Mar-07/ Yao Hsiao Tung/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 1230000

HO BEE INVESTMENT LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 5-Mar-07/ Ng Noi Hinoy/ Open Market Purchase/ Single/ 350000

HO BEE INVESTMENT LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 5-Mar-07/ Chua Kong Chian/ Open Market Purchase/ Single/ 350000

HO BEE INVESTMENT LIMITED/ Director/ 5-Mar-07/ Chua Thian Poh/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 350000

HO BEE INVESTMENT LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 5-Mar-07/ Ho Bee Holdings (Pte) Ltd/ Open Market Purchase/ Single/ 350000

HOTUNG INVESTMENT HLDGS LTD/ Director/ 6-Mar-07/ Cheng Cheng-Pin/ Open Market Sale/ No Info/ -593187

ISDN HOLDINGS LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 9-Mar-07/ Assetraise Holdings Limited/ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 910000

JIUTIAN CHEMICAL GROUP LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 2-Mar-07/ Legg Mason Inc./ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 6000000

K1 VENTURES LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 7-Mar-07/ Kephinance Investment Pte Ltd/ Open Market Purchase/ Single/ 18000000

KEPPEL TELE & TRAN/ Subst Shrhdr/ 7-Mar-07/ KAPITAL ASIA PTE LTD/ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 3996000

KIAN ANN ENGINEERING LTD/ Director/ 5-Mar-07/ Lau Hwee Beng/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 250000

KODA LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 5-Mar-07/ Blackhorse Asset Management Pte Ltd/ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 350000

KODA LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 1-Mar-07/ Blackhorse Asset Management Pte Ltd/ Open Market Purchase/ Single/ 524000

LEE KIM TAH HLDGS LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 5-Mar-07/ Lee Kim Tah Investments Pte Ltd/ Open Market Purchase/ Single/ 415000

LHT HOLDINGS LIMITED/ Director/ 9-Mar-07/ Neo Koon Boo/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 501000

LMA INTERNATIONAL N.V./ Subst Shrhdr/ 2-Mar-07/ Wasatch Advisors Inc./ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 397390

MACQUARIE INT'L INFRA FUND LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 22-Feb-07/ MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED/ Open Market Purchase/ Single/ 1500000

MACQUARIE MEAG PRIME REIT/ Subst Shrhdr/ 1-Mar-07/ Macquarie Bank Limited/ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 10881000

MAGNUS ENERGY GROUP LTD./ Director/ 9-Mar-07/ Harry Lee Vui Khiun/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 1316000

MAGNUS ENERGY GROUP LTD./ Director/ 5-Mar-07/ Harry Lee Vui Khiun/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 1350000

MEDIARING LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 1-Mar-07/ PARAMOUNT ASSETS INVESTMENTS PTE. LTD ./ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 7515000

MEDIARING LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 5-Mar-07/ PARAMOUNT ASSETS INVESTMENTS PTE LTD/ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 13450000

NOEL GIFTS INTERNATIONAL LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 2-Mar-07/ Royal Union Corporation Pte Ltd/ Open Market Sale/ Single/ -1300000

NOEL GIFTS INTERNATIONAL LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 23-Feb-07/ Royal Institution Pte Ltd/ Open Market Sale/ Series/ -1135000

NOEL GIFTS INTERNATIONAL LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 26-Feb-07/ Royal Institution Pte Ltd/ Open Market Sale/ Series/ -1100000

NOEL GIFTS INTERNATIONAL LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 8-Mar-07/ Royal Institution Pte Ltd/ Open Market Sale/ Single/ -1000000

NOEL GIFTS INTERNATIONAL LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 28-Apr-04/ Royal Institution Pte Ltd/ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 2055000

NUCLEUS ELECTRONICS LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 8-Mar-07/ World Alliance Capital Ltd/ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 1471000

NUCLEUS ELECTRONICS LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 7-Mar-07/ World Alliance Capital Ltd/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 3331000

NUCLEUS ELECTRONICS LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 1-Mar-07/ Binary Technologies Ltd/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 60000000

OSIM INTERNATIONAL LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 2-Mar-07/ The Capital Group Companies Inc. (CGC)/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 2430000

PACIFIC HEALTHCARE HLDGS LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 28-Feb-07/ Pequot Healthcare Emerging Markets Master Fund Ltd./ Open Market Purchase/ Single/ 3037000

PACIFIC SHIPPING TRUST/ Subst Shrhdr/ 1-Mar-07/ MERRILL LYNCH & CO INC/ Open Market Sale/ Series/ -3408000

SAPPHIRE CORPORATION LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 2-Mar-07/ UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED (UOB)/ Open Market Sale/ Series/ -106055000

SC GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS LTD/ Director/ 5-Mar-07/ CHEONG SAE PENG/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 250000

SC GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS LTD/ Director/ 5-Mar-07/ CHEONG SAE PENG/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 250000

SEMBCORP MARINE LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 28-Feb-07/ Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited (Temasek)/ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 961000

SILVERLAKE AXIS LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 7-Mar-07/ Arisaig ASEAN Fund Limited Arisaig Partners (BVI) Limited/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 1687000

SINGAPURA FINANCE LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 2-Mar-07/ See Hoy Chan (1988) Pte Ltd/ Open Market Purchase/ Single/ 6203500

SINO-ENVIRONMENT TECH GRP LTD/ Director/ 8-Mar-07/ SUN JIANGRONG/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 500000

SINO-ENVIRONMENT TECH GRP LTD/ Director/ 7-Mar-07/ SUN JIANGRONG/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 1000000

TAI SIN ELECTRIC CABLES MFGLTD/ Director/ 8-Mar-07/ LIM EWE LEE/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 600000

TIME WATCH INVESTMENTS LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 9-Mar-07/ WINNING INTERNATIONAL LIMITED/ Open Market Sale/ Series/ -17000000

TIONG WOON CORP HOLDING LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 7-Mar-07/ ANG CHOO KIM & SONS (PTE.) LIMITED/ Open Market Purchase/ Single/ 862000

TPV TECHNOLOGY LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 27-Feb-07/ Government of Singapore Investment Corporation Pte Limited/ Open Market Purchase/ Single/ 2500000

UNISTEEL TECHNOLOGY LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 5-Mar-07/ The Capital Group Companies Inc. (CGC)/ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 3380000

UNITED ENGINEERS LTD ORD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 5-Mar-07/ Guoco Group Limited/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 511000

UNITED ENGINEERS LTD ORD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 5-Mar-07/ Capital Intelligence Limited/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 511000

VICPLAS INTERNATIONAL LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 5-Mar-07/ Chan Michael/ Open Market Sale/ Single/ -22568990

YAAN SECURITY TECHNOLOGY LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 5-Mar-07/ Maria Joseph/ Open Market Sale/ Single/ -310000

YAAN SECURITY TECHNOLOGY LTD/ Subst Shrhdr/ 5-Mar-07/ Yeo Johar/ Open Market Sale/ Single/ -310000

YELLOW PAGES(SINGAPORE)LIMITED/ Director/ 2-Mar-07/ Pang Yoke Min/ Open Market Purchase/ No Info/ 622000

YELLOW PAGES(SINGAPORE)LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 2-Mar-07/ Third Avenue Management LLC/ Open Market Purchase/ Series/ 4535000

YONGNAM HOLDINGS LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 5-Mar-07/ JPMorgan Chase & Co/ Open Market Sale/ Single/ -8000000

YONGNAM HOLDINGS LIMITED/ Subst Shrhdr/ 1-Mar-07/ PRUDENTIAL ASSET MANAGEMENT (S) LTD/ Open Market Sale/ Series/ -3294000

Over the past week, it was evident that the number of insider and substantial shareholder purchases that was reported to the SGX far outnumbers the sell transactions. However, there are a few stocks that have been sold over the past two weeks or so (e.g. Yongnam and Noel Gifts). So it seems like accumulation is still on everyone's mind.

ASIAN MARKET COMMENTARY
-----------------------
The Hang Seng, Nikkei and Straits Times Indexes were all up in the past week as the momentum indicators bottomed and started heading up. The overwhelming number of "smart money" buys in the Singapore market would be one of the key factors for the rally as I would expect the situation in the other markets to be very much the same. But as good as the rally over the past week was, the short term stochastics has hit overbought levels accompanied by a high market breadth, a short pull-back may be round the corner.

US MARKET COMMENTARY
--------------------
I've updated the Consumer Sentiment and NASDAQ data for Feb'07 into the monthly indicators chart. Both series are starting to head down. And if the market closes lower for Mar'07, it might spark off another wave of selling. And who knows, the sell-off might then be enough for the FED to consider cutting rates. But as always, we'll let the market speak for itself.
A couple of weeks ago, I was mentioning about a pick up in put buying signalling the start of a sell-off. Well, the volume of put options did indeed pickup at the end of Feb'07. The (light green) PCR (Put-Call Ratio) line was on the rise, and rising volume on the CBOE Total Equity Options VOlume pane confirmed the increase.

Here's how I read the PCR line: If it rises, more puts are bought relative to the day before and vice versa.

The previous short term peaks and troughs of the PCR line that coincides with the peaks in equity options volume will show if the market prefers calls or puts.

The sell-off that started in Apr'06 also started with a switch from high call volume to high put volume.

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK
------------------
As mentioned the slow stochastics has moved into overbought territory, but the market should remain bullish in the short term until we see the lows of the previous two days get taken out (and the stochastics starts falling)

Both the PCR and Volatility Oscillator lines have moved down substantially. The Volatility line has reached its historically significant low level while the PCR line is almost there. Low levels (a trough) in these two lines usually signal that a short-term top is near. Put that together with a peak in the stochastics indicator and a breakdown in price, we have a very reliable setup for going short.

MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK
-------------------
The Stochastics for the weekly NASDAQ chart is in neutral zone while the MACD is still in the high zone (and falling). Put that together with the drop in Consumer Sentiment and NASDAQ Rate-of-change from the monthly indicators, I'm not too positive about the medium term.


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Have a gd week!

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