SGX Insider and Substantial Shareholder transactions for 02 - 05 Apr 07 & Market Commentary

Hi all,

Here are the more significant Insider and Substantial Shareholders transactions reported on the Singapore Stock Exchange in the past week:




ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETs COMMENTARY
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There are no major economic news from the APAC region in the past week. Taking their cue from the US Market, the Australian, Singapore, Hong Kong and Japanese markets all finished higher for the week.

From the charts, the All Ordinaries and Straits Times Indexes have both recovered back to pre-selldown levels while the Nikkei is not performing as well. Going forward, the All Ords and the STI would probably still be outperformers until a major macro-economic event causes the institutional investors in these markets to make drastic adjustments.

US MARKET COMMENTARY
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The news front was relatively quiet on the US side as well with the focus now shifting back to oil and Middle Eastern developments. It's times like these that I rely on Technical Analysis to tell me what the markets are up to, and reading every financial paper or financial website out there is not my cup of tea.

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK
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The analysis from last week was on the money again... we expected either a rally or pullback and had the gauges in place. From the MBO, the days to buy were 2nd and 4th of Apr respectively.

On the close of last friday, here's what the short-term indicators are telling us:
(1) NASDAQ Market Breath Oscillator 2 : 0.117
(2) Volatility Oscillator : -0.07
(3) Put-Call Ration Oscillator : -0.053
(4) Stochastics Oscillator : Oversold
(5) Put-Call Ration EMA : Falling
(6) CBOE Equity Options Volume : Average-Low

The MBO is only slightly positive, not enough to provide any substantial clue of possible direction in the next few days. But since the stochastics is still rising, chances are, the index still has some kick left.

The Volatility and PCR Oscillators have fallen to levels where short-term tops can happen.

The falling PCR suggests an increase in call buying but the average-low volume also suggests that the call buying is not convincing.

So on an overall basis, the likelihood of a short-term top setup is pretty high. But as always, triggers (buy and sell stops) need to be in place to trade in whichever the market decides to go... the outlook is but a sign post.

MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK
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I've now also added the Market Breadth Oscillator to the weekly NASDAQ chart, and it is used in the exact same way as the short term chart.

Here's what I see from the indicators:
MBO: 0.098
Stochastics: Reaching overbought
MACD: %k and %d converging

The MBO suggests that the coming week is either down or sideways.

Have a gd week!